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12.05. 09:31

Original-Research: CENIT AG (von GBC AG): Buy


Original-Research: CENIT AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu CENIT AG

Unternehmen: CENIT AG
ISIN: DE0005407100

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 20.05 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2022
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Q1 2022: Revenues slightly up, earnings slightly down year-on-year;
inorganic effects not yet included; we confirm our forecasts; price target
changes due to higher WACC; BUY rating confirmed

The seasonal sales trend of CENIT AG is usually characterised by lower
sales revenues in the first quarter, while the fourth quarter makes the
largest contribution to sales. In the past six business years, the first
quarter contributed 23.6% and the fourth quarter 27.4% to annual sales.
This should also be the case in the current business year, especially since
there were still pandemic-related restrictions at the beginning of the
year. In this environment, CENIT AG succeeded in slightly increasing the
previous year's sales by 3.5% to EUR 35.40 million (previous year: EUR
34.21 million). According to the company, this was due in particular to the
increased consulting and service business, which rose significantly by EUR
1.25 million to EUR 10.27 million (Q1 2021: EUR 9.02 million) compared to
the same period of the previous year. Among other things, orders from the
aerospace sector contributed to this. In parallel, both sales of CENIT
software and sales of third-party software remained almost unchanged
compared to the previous year.

Despite a slight increase in sales, CENIT AG shows a slight decline in
EBITDA to EUR 0.73 million (Q1 2021: EUR 0.83 million). The resulting
increase in operating expenses is primarily due to the discontinuation of
short-time working allowances, which reduced personnel expenses by around
EUR 0.8 million in the first quarter of 2021. In addition, there was an
increase in other operating expenses of EUR 0.37 million due to inflation.
The fact that the operating result did not fall more strongly against this
background was due to the renewed increase in gross profit by EUR 0.90
million. The declining development of EBITDA is also reflected at the level
of the result for the period, which was below the previous year's value at
EUR -0.60 million (Q1 2021: EUR -0.51 million) after minorities.

After the balance sheet date of 31 March 2022, CENIT AG acquired a majority
interest in ISR Information Products AG ('ISR' for short). Although the
consolidation is retroactive to 01.01.2022, the figures for the first
quarter of 2022 do not yet include any inorganic effects. ISR Information
Products AG is a full-service provider for analytics and process
digitalisation with headquarters in Braunschweig. With its product
portfolio, which comprises the business areas 'Analytics & Insights', 'SAP
Information Management', 'Digital Operations' and 'Application Management',
ISR supports customers in the design and implementation of analytical
systems and digital end-to-end processes using cloud-based SaaS solutions.
One such solution is ISR's 'Buildsimple', an A.I. platform for the cloud
distribution of document management solutions.

With the announcement of the ISR takeover, the CENIT management had
increased the forecast for the current business year 2022, which has now
been confirmed in the Q1 reporting. Sales revenues of EUR 170 million and
an EBIT of approximately EUR 9 million are still expected. We had already
taken this into account in our forecasts in our research study (Anno) of 13
April 2022. Therefore, we are keeping our previous forecasts unchanged.

The input data of our DCF valuation model also remain unchanged. However,
in view of the current interest rate development, we increase the risk-free
interest rate to 0.40% (previously: 0.25%), resulting in a higher weighted
average cost of capital WACC of 7.75% (previously: 7.60%). Solely due to
this effect, the price target is reduced to EUR 20.05 (previously: EUR
20.60). We continue to give the rating BUY.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

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Date (time) of completion: 12/05/2022 (08:09 am)
Date (Time) first distribution: 12/05/2022 (09:30 am)

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