22.04. 21:59 16,450€ +0,30%
12.01. 09:02

Original-Research: USU Software AG (von NuWays AG): BUY


Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG

Unternehmen: USU Software AG

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 12.01.2024
Kursziel: 30
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Strong order intake to start transitionary 2024e

This week, USU announced to have won two public sector framework contracts
to start the year on a positive note: (1) Germany's Federal Employment
Agency (BA) commissioned USU for its TEBIT (Technical Inventory Management
System IT) project. The TEBIT system of the BA is based on the USU
Valuemation software and has been in productive use since 2016. To ensure a
continuous stable operation, USU is now carrying out an update to the
latest USU Service Management (former Valuemation) software. The deal
comprises the delivery of the software licenses as well as a service
package over 4 years. While the total volume was not disclosed, we estimate
it to be in the lower single-digit million range. (2) A large system house
from the public sector has commissioned USU to supply and implement a
solution for end-to-end monitoring (E2E) in order to enable the customer to
proactively monitor their applications and document the availability and
performance of IT services. The total volume of the framework is in the
high 6-digit range.

With this, the company is kicking off a year in style, which is likely
going to be another transitionary period. Mind you, USU is currently amid a
SaaS transformation, which is seen to cause temporarily declining margins,
due to the subscription-nature of SaaS contracts which come with lower
initial margins compared to perpetual license deals where full payment is
incurred at closing (+annual maintenance). However, as the annual
subscription payments are seen to equal perpetual license sales including
maintenance after c. 3 years and SaaS sales showing strong growth (25% CAGR
'21'-25e), margins are seen to strongly expand from 2025 onwards.

That said, we expect sales to grow 10% in 2024e to EUR 146m (eCons: EUR 146m)
based on a strong order backlog (eNuW: EUR 81m at YE'23e), continuously
increasing SaaS order intake as well as a stabilization of license sales
(eNuW: -60% yoy in 2023e). Against this backdrop, adj. EBITDA is seen to
return to growth (eNuW: EUR 18.6m). Yet, due to the aforementioned effects in
relation to the SaaS transition, margins are seen slightly below '21 & '22
levels with 12.5%.

Despite another transition year likely laying ahead, current valuation is
looking undemanding and should offer an attractive entry opportunity given
a 14x EV/EBIT '24e which compares to the historic average of 20x. BUY with
an unchanged PT of EUR 30.00 based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden

Kontakt für Rückfragen
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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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